Patience is the Critical Variable
Know when it works for you or against you.
Since 2020, I’ve tried to keep a mantra of patience.
The rebound, v-shape recovery, happened faster than expected thanks to the stimulus, and so staying long and waiting for the market reversion has paid off.
But given that patience has already paid off, will it continue to do so?
You’ll never know their time horizon.
The biggest trap of Crypto Twitter is that everyone is on a different time horizon.
You have day traders, swing or momentum traders, speculative investors, and long-term funds with a 10 year + horizon.
Everyone is sharing opinions but you don’t ever, and will never, know the full context for why someone is sharing what they are sharing.
You’ll never know the full complex weight of decisions and motivations that go into investing decisions.
Patience is the key variable.
But “patience is the key variable” doesn’t sound what it looks like at first glance.
When people hear “patience is the key variable” they assume that what I’m saying is to “Be Patient.”
We think that patience = good.
And that impatience = bad.
But that’s not what I’m saying. What I’m saying is that patience, as a variable will make or break you.
Patience rewards you when you’re right.
Patience keeps you forever waiting for a "return to normal" that never comes when you’re wrong.
Patience will reward you in secular trends.
Patience will kill you in regime change.
If you are being patient, waiting for something to return, waiting for a reversion to the mean, but that reversion and that return never happen, you will be slowly killed. While the rest of the world rewards those that made a change.
So, the trick here is to ask yourself:
“Am I being patient because being patient is “good” or am I being patient because I “hope” things will return or am I being patient because I am positioned correctly, and the market just hasn’t caught up with me yet?”
Of course, this is why there is risk in investing, there is no right answer.
Only time will tell.
XX I’m David Sherry, I coach early-stage founders, invest in crypto, and write on the overlap of investing, crypto, and the creator economy.
You can join my Telegram chat for more real-time notes on what I’m thinking.