The Waiting Game

There is a common metaphor people use where you should “Work like a lion, not a cow.”

Lions are relaxed, free, and patient. They wait until it’s time to go out and discover a meal, or they catch an opportunity for one and move right into the action.

Cows are in fences and are slowly and constantly feeding but without much substance or dynamism.

The metaphor is about how work today can happen in sprints, bringing more reward than the constant monotony of activity yielding little substance.

I think the same has always been true for investing.

There is so much wasted activity from daily grazing. So many decisions, or almost decisions, or ideas, which are ultimately filling time rather than building substance.

I think that for the average investor, much of the activity is a net negative, and is driven by the cause of simply not being able to sit still… and just… wait.

It’s said that Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger are philosophers first, investors second. They have a tremendous history of psychological fortitude around buying market lows and selling into highs.

They preserve and build up capital until just that specific moment where they get incredibly aggressive.

They are the lions, waiting months, years, decades before jumping into the fray in times of most danger and getting their fill devouring what they have been waiting years to catch.

What’s hidden about the act of waiting, with cash, is you are capitalized and comfortable when the psychology of the market is freaking out and emotional.

They’ve built up their treasury while taking the emotional trade-off of looking lazy, stupid, and waiting on the sidelines for years.

However, it’s not that you are waiting for no reason, it’s that you’re waiting with intent to capture the opportunity at the specific right moment to do so.

I, personally, can remember about 5 times over the last 8 years or so where there were truly moments of opportunity that I personally saw.

COVID was a huge opportunity moment. We’re probably entering a moment of opportunity, today.

2017 Crypto was a moment. NFT’s were a moment. SOL was a moment.

Having the capital available and seeing the opportunity before it became consensus is the name of the game. At least for how I prefer to invest.

If I was a better investor, I would be seeing many more deals. But I’m not, and so I need to define what my edge can be against the market.

But I’m just a solo-lion, sometimes thinking I’m a cow and getting malnourished from it.

The metaphor is apt because at some point I do need to go out and go hunting. Yet, I’m trying to be better about waiting… conserving my energy and capital for those moments where I truly have the conviction to make my move.